It really depends on the prevailing winds in a given area or if a front is passing through. Secondly how much wind change are the rules simulating? I think this is something that can be scenario driven as well. Winds can be fluky so you can certainly have dramatic wind shifts over the course of a game, a gale blowing in or wind dying away only to pick up again from a different direction. A lot depends on whether you are close to land masses rather than in the open ocean as well.