Windage Dice

[7eat51]

Hi Todd,

According to the Summary of Markers, Tokens, and Counters in the rules, there are 3 each of the wind change counters and 4 neutral. So at turn 2, the probability should be significantly higher:

Turn 1: probability of drawing a wind change counter = 6/10 = 0.6
Turn 2: probability of drawing the same wind change counter as drawn in turn 1 = 2/9 = 0.22222
So the probability of having a wind change by turn 2 = 12/90 = 0.13333

Alternatively, this can be set up as the following looking at both turns based on a given direction:
The probability of a drawing a counterclockwise direction on both turns = CCW AND CCW = 0.3 x 0.22222 = 0.66667 rounded up
or
The probability of a drawing a clockwise direction on both turns = CW AND CW = 0.3 x 0.22222 = 0.66667 rounded up
Totaling 0.13333

Assuming one neutral counter was drawn during one of the first two turns, and a second appropriate wind change counter was drawn by turn 3, the logic of the odds would be:
Turn 1 drawing a wind change counter (6/10) AND Turn 2 drawing a second same wind change counter (2/9)
OR
Turn 1 drawing a wind change (6/10) AND Turn 2 drawing an unchanged counter (4/9) AND Turn 3 drawing a second same wind change counter (2/9)
OR
Turn 1 drawing an unchanged marker (4/10) AND Turn 2 drawing a wind change counter (6/10) AND Turn 3 drawing a second same wind change counter (2/9)

By the time you get to turn 4, things get very interesting because your table title is "at least one":
Turn 1 drawing a wind change counter (6/10) AND Turn 2 drawing a second same wind change counter (2/9)
OR
Turn 1 drawing a wind change counter (6/10) AND Turn 2 drawing an unchanged counter (4/9) AND Turn 3 drawing a second same wind change counter (2/9)
OR
Turn 1 drawing an unchanged counter (4/10) AND Turn 2 drawing a wind change counter (6/10) AND Turn 3 drawing a second same wind change counter (2/9)
OR
Turn 1 drawing a wind change counter (6/10) AND Turn 2 drawing an unchanged counter (4/9) AND Turn 3 drawing an unchanged counter (4/9) AND Turn 4 drawing a second same wind change counter (2/9)
OR
Turn 1 drawing an unchanged counter (4/10) AND Turn 2 drawing an unchanged counter (4/10) AND Turn 3 drawing a wind change counter (6/10) AND Turn 4 drawing a second same wind change counter (2/9)
OR
Turn 1 drawing a wind change marker (6/10) AND Turn 2 drawing the opposite wind change marker (3/9) AND Turn 3 drawing a wind change marker (6/10) AND Turn 4 drawing a second same wind change counter (2/9)
OR
Turn 1 drawing a wind change counter (6/10) AND Turn 2 drawing a second same wind change counter (2/9) AND Turn 3 drawing a wind change counter (6/10) AND Turn 4 drawing a second same wind change counter (2/9) [for 2 wind changes - "at least one"]

By turn 5 ...

[Pseudotheist]

According to the Summary of Markers, Tokens, and Counters in the rules, there are 3 each of the wind change counters and 4 neutral. So at turn 2, the probability should be significantly higher:

I somehow managed to completely misread that; I'll have to re-run the numbers for a new comparison. Also, does everyone else's rulebook say that the wind strength counters come with only one counter of each type, so using the two-token system for wind change means the wind strength will never change?

[7eat51]

I somehow managed to completely misread that; I'll have to re-run the numbers for a new comparison. Also, does everyone else's rulebook say that the wind strength counters come with only one counter of each type, so using the two-token system for wind change means the wind strength will never change?

Todd, this is why I asked about the logic of your table. Without knowing how it was setup, all we could do is state that our numbers are different, without, necessarily, knowing why.

[RichardPF]

...does everyone else's rulebook say that the wind strength counters come with only one counter of each type, so using the two-token system for wind change means the wind strength will never change?

It does appear that way.
The rules say that while the unchanged counters are replaced the change counter is not replaced unless it is cancelled by one of another direction OR A SECOND ONE OF THE SAME DIRECTION IS DRAWN.
Page 58 does seem to show 1 each increase and decrease counter and 3 unchanged counters.

Does the demo game kit include these counters?
Has anyone counted what is actually in the kit?