Gibraltar 2019

March 2019 - after 2 year of secret infiltration, Spanish Nationalists occupies the government of Gibraltar and all vital defence points of the peninsula. Within a month they would initiate a referendum about a union with the Spanish homeland. It's clear that the "voting" & the result result would be similar to the Crimea crisis of 2014. :shock:

Spain supports open the process in Gibraltar and is happy to welcome back "Spanish homeland". :clap: An infantry division is offered to guarantee a fair referendum.

Meanwhile the USA are busy with a crisis in the Chinese sea, because 3 month ago the Japanese carrier Izumo was sunk by a submarine sneak attack. All evidences point at China but the People's Republic anounced that a Northern Corean submarine was responsible. A "reason" for the Chinese fleet to strenghten their presence suspicious near the island of Taiwan. The US Navy reinforced their presence in the Pacific, supported by a big secondment of RN ships. :minis:

The same time, the Spanish nationalist acted, the French carrier Charles de Gaulle and two Aquitaine class ships are in the harbour of Algeciras for a goodwill visit. Madame la presidente Le Pen, which initiated and won a referendum for a leave of the EU a year ago, makes clear that the will of the people of Gibraltar has to be respected - a hidden warning to their English neighbours, not to intervene with military strengh. :swordright: She favours a "political solution".

Germany, Italy and Poland are not willing to take a stand for or against. Their interest are to keep the rest of the EU together and repeal Russian and Turkey influence in middle Europe. Old sympathies of - for example the Netherlands and Poland - aren't no more since the UK left the EU in 2017. The remains of Western EU economic power and hot-blooded political guidelines of the Visegrad states focus east. :hmmm:

Nato headquarters is paralized.

30 days left to the referendum...

Where did this pop up from Sven?
Rob.

This came directly out of the "what if" section of my brain, according to the news of the last 3 days. :wink:

Sometimes I wonder how old rivalry grow up again when I read the article about the Spanish corvette Infanta Cristina violating the waters around Gibraltar.

There are still some "construction sites" in Europe.

One small tricky bit here is that there isn't a population base from within which the "Spanish nationalists" could mysteriously develop.

Would suggest that there would be little or no RN presence in the Far East episode, far more likely to be a RAN contingent instead.

Spain better hope that there isn't even a whiff of involvement in any action In Gib, lest an "Article 5" situation is raised, in which case Britain's Ambassador Farage in Washington would most likely have his bezzie mate Donny dispatch a carrier group or two. He'd probably relish the chance to precipitate the breakup of the rest of the EU. Mind you, that brings in the spectre of Junker's independence fighters in Texas and Ohio. Fun for all the family....... :happy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1G0WJQuXHg

You think Uncle Sam would send one or two carrier groups to the Mediterranean and the RN nothing to the Chinese Sea?

The article 5 case would be difficult, too.

Spain is part of the Nato.

The scenario above isn't a military attack vs. a Nato member.

...

I had my thoughts about it when Turkey shot down this Russian fighterbomber. Is it an article 5 situation if one Nato member starts the action?

Would Germany and other Nato allies risk a war with Russia for the itchy trigger finger of a rising Sultan?

Its at least as likely as the baseline scenario :)

Vaguely seriously though, if there was a crisis in Gib then thats where the RN would go rather than the Far East, so now you can throw some F-35Bs from Queen Liz into the scenario as well

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Originally Posted by Comte de Brueys

The article 5 case would be difficult, too.

Spain is part of the Nato.

The scenario above isn't a military attack vs. a Nato member.

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If there was evidence that the Spanish Nationalists were motivated by the Spanish government (as presumably would be the case given the demographics of Gibraltar) then it would indeed be an Article 5 matter.


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Quote:

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I had my thoughts about it when Turkey shot down this Russian fighterbomber. Is it an article 5 situation if one Nato member starts the action?

Would Germany and other Nato allies risk a war with Russia for the itchy trigger finger of a rising Sultan?

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The principle of Article 5 is "an attack on one is an attack on all". So an attack initiated by a NATO member on another country does not trigger it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by David Manley

... now you can throw some F-35Bs from Queen Liz into the scenario as well

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I hope this one is finished that soon, Wiki wrote that this carrier will be commissioned 2020.



Can't understand those Spanish ambitions there.

Would be the same if Germany had a permant tank patrol near Straßburg or Zgorzelec.



Beside this I can't rate the Spanish Navy at the moment. I only know about their "ambitious" submarine program.

Queen Liz is going to sea this Summer. My teams are spending a large proportion of their time on the safety clearances, and I'm due up to see her in a month or two

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Comte de Brueys

Beside this I can't rate the Spanish Navy at the moment. I only know about their "ambitious" submarine program.

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"I take it for granted not manned, as that would be the surest way to lose them."
[ADM Horatio Nelson, on hearing of Spain transferring six ships of the line to France]

Frankly, the abject s***-kicking-out-of Spain would receive from Britain, even with Britain's current (lack of) naval status, would make the Falklands war look like a Delta House frat prank. The main difficulty will be: What will Britain do for Heavy Bombers now the Vulcans are out-of-service? (Perhaps a use can finally be found for the _Wings of Glory_ Avro Lancasters.... >;) )

Chris, you know about the Spanish subs? The RN do not need to care it's a one way design... :wink:




Nato article 5 wasn't activated during the Falkland crisis/war.

I'm shure that this situation fits to the scenario, too.

Amphibious operations are very dangerous - versus a defended Gibraltar, I think nearly impossible.

...and you need to consider the French attitude, too.

Bear in mind, the US can't just throw CVBG's around willy-nilly like we did in Cold War days--last I knew we were down to only six of them, though I'm not sure if that's six available for deployment or six total. Normal USN practice was to try to keep a ratio of one on-station - one in overhaul/refit - one transiting to/from overhaul, if memory serves.

Re NATO-on-NATO, the Reds used to practically cream their skivvies when Greece and Turkey would start to look like they were teeing up to Light Up... so Article 5 is a tenuous thing, and has only been invoked over 9/11 so far. And let's hope it stays that way... but my guess re NATO-on-NATO is "whoever broke the club rules and fired first is out of the club."

Article 5 was not invoked because there are geographical limits on its coverage. Gib is most definitely within the area of applicability

So the Russians for example can sink an USN ship in the Southern Atlantic without risking a Nato response? :question:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Diamondback

... "whoever broke the club rules and fired first is out of the club."

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That's a point in my scenario: no shooting.

...and no guarantee that other (European) Nato members would join the party.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Comte de Brueys

So the Russians for example can sink an USN ship in the Southern Atlantic without risking a Nato response? :question:

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Yes

Article 5
“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”

Well, it wouldn't be an Article 5 mandate, but my bet is that kind of blatant aggression would see a lot of countries rallying to the US cause because if Tsar Vladimir the KGB Scumbag In Dire Need of Impaling kicks THAT can over, what will he do next and to whom? You don't just sink a big-ass Nimitz by 'accident'...

Oh yes, that goes without saying. The "5 eyes" community would most definitely rally round for a start