OK, here a sobering thought. I just read this again and considered it carefully:
Now then, when were the "ships produced" for wave 1? That is not entirely clear to me, but Ares reported them as "in production" in mid-July (i.e. with all the design changes already completed, pre-production signed off, etc. At that point it was labeled as "in production").We expect these new ships to be produced in March, and to have them in the USA in early May.
On the other end, they were "in the US" in early December, and I received mine in early January, somewhere in the middle of the pack for USA orders.
So are there strong reasons to think the delays won't be just as big this time around? Sure there was the holiday season and a little snow, but let's be realistic, I don't buy that these excuses added more than two weeks to the timetable. We're talking about ~6 working days lost. The problems seem to have been lack of visibility and process control on the production side, and god-awful slow fulfillment by a warehousing company more used to sending a few giant shipments out to big distributors. Sure this is the second time around, but given that there are already glitches (shortage of paper or ink?!) what does that tell us?
So let's just map it out off past experience and see where it lands..
Wave 1 July = Wave 2 March = production begins
Wave 1 Aug = Wave 2 Apr
Wave 1 Sept = Wave 2 May
Wave 1 Oct = Wave 2 June
Wave 1 Nov = Wave 2 July
Wave 1 Dec = Wave 2 Aug = ships arrive in US
Wave 1 Jan = Wave 2 Sept = average USA order may be delivered
I don't think there's any way I will see ships by next summer. I don't want to jinx it, but *maybe* 1st raters will hit the table by Christmas next year. In the meantime, better curb the irrational enthusiasm, and just enjoy the ships we have (or DON'T HAVE for those 1% ers). It's going to be a long haul...
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